Curves
The ETM uses hourly curves to model (electricity, hydrogen and gas) demand and supply.
The hourly demand/supply is determined using the annual demand/supply and a set curve. It is also possible to use your own curves in the ETM by inserting them in Flexibility > Modify profiles. This page gives an overview of the type of curves and explains how to modify these curves by inserting your own.
Image: Example of hourly demand - hydrogen demand
Overview of curves
The ETM had three types of curves: demand curves, supply curves and time curves. The tables below show a brief overview of the sources and methods currently used.
Demand
| Sector | Sub-sector | Source | Method | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Households | Space heating | TNO | TNO curves fitted to temperature and irradiance which enables to generate curves for all years. Curves have been smoothed to show the average load of a cluster of 300 houses rather than an individual house. This results in lower and more realistic total demand peaks. | Update with TNO heat loss calculation when data becomes available |
| Hot water | Jordan (2001) | Distribution function based on average Dutch household. Curves have been smoothed to show the average load of a cluster of 1000 houses rather than an individual house, see GitHub | - | |
| Cooling | NEDU | E1A curve | Argumentation of method, update with TNO heat loss calculation when data becomes available | |
| Appliances, lighting, cooking | NEDU | E1A curve | - | |
| Buildings | Space heating | NEDU | G2A | Update with TNO heat loss calculation when data becomes available |
| Cooling | NEDU | E3A curve | Argumentation of method, update with TNO heat loss calculation when data becomes available | |
| Appliances | NEDU | E3A curve | - | |
| Transport | Electric cars | Movares and ELaad | Profiles available: Movares: week and weekend days for 1) charging everywhere 2) charging at home 3) fast charging. ELaad: repeating average day for 4) smart charging 5) regular charging Default curve for cars is charging everywhere. | - |
| Passenger trains, trams/metro, electric bicycle, motorcycles | Movares | 1) Charging everywhere | Aim to update with measured data (Pro Rail) | |
| Electric busses, electric trucks, freight trains | Movares | 2) Charging at home (curve peaks during night) | Update when specific data becomes available | |
| Hydrogen trucks, hydrogen busses, hydrogen cars | - | Flat curve | - | |
| Industry | Heating demand in Food, Paper and Other | Gasterra | G2C profile | - |
| Electricity demand in Food, Paper, Other and ICT | NEDU | E3D curve | - | |
| Heating and electricity in all other sectors | - | Flat curve | ||
| Agriculture | Electricity | NEDU | E3A curve | - |
| Heat | NEDU | G2A | Update when specific data becomes available |
Supply
| Sector | Source | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Solar PV | "Open Power System Data platform" | Profile from measured data, adjusted to match country specific full load hours |
| Solar Thermal | "KNMI" | Profile from measured data, adjusted to solar-thermal behaviour |
| Wind | "Open Power System Data platform" and Renewables.ninja | OPSD: Profile from measured data, adjusted to match country specific full load hours. Renewables.ninja: Modelled profiles available from 1980-present using satellite weather data. |
| Other | Geothermal heat, geothermal power, hydro, biogas CHP, waste incinerator | Flat curve |
| Dispatchable technologies | Production determined by merit order |
Time curves
Time curves define how the national production of energy carriers changes over the years (up to 2040)
They are documented in on ETDataset in the source analyses of the specific datasets. Example for The Netherlands - 2015
For the Netherlands the time curves are based on:
- Natural Gas: this GasUnie letter (31-01-2019).
- Crude oil: NLOG.
- Other carriers: The Primes reference scenario in EC 2016 Trends to 2050 - Reference Scenario 2016.
For all other countries the time curves are based on the Primes reference scenario 2016.
Checkout: the ETDataset - curves as it contains all raw data, scripts and further explanations.
Modifying Profiles
The ETM calculates the hourly production and demand of gas, electricity, heat and hydrogen. These curves can be modified by uploading your own curves in the 'Modify profiles' section.
Types of profiles
You can upload three types of profiles:
Demand profiles. These profiles specify the fraction of annual demand used in each hour of the year (8760 hours) for a specific category. The values in your uploaded curve do not matter: the ETM will convert your file to a new curve which respects the shape of your original. Example of profiles are: electric buses, industry heating.
Production profiles ('capacity profiles'). These profiles specify for each hour per year the fraction of installed capacity used in that hour for a specific production technology. The sum of all hours should equal the total annual full load hours of that technology. Example of profiles are: solar PV, wind offshore.
Price curves. These profiles specify a price for each hour per year. The unit is €/MWh. Example of a profile is: imported electricity.
Uploading a custom profile
In the curve upload section, you can choose a curve profile you want to overwrite using the curve upload form. Simply choose a profile by clicking on the drop-down menu and selecting the specific profile you want to overwrite. To upload your own curve profile you have to click on the 'Upload a custom curve' button below the drop-down menu. This will allow you to choose a file from your computer.
Your file should be a CSV file with 8,760 rows (one for each hour per year) each with a numeric value specifying the demand, supply or price over time.
23.64
32.71
32.65
32.71
30.89
etc
For price curves, the unit of the values is €/MWh. The price in each hour will be rounded to the nearest whole cent.
For supply curves ('capacity profiles'), the sum of the profile should equal the total annual number of full load hours of the specific technology. This means that for each hour the profile should contain a value between 0 and 1 specifying the fraction of peak capacity used in that hour. E.g. a value of 0.5 means that 50% of peak capacity is utilised in that hour.
For demand curves (which also includes gas import/export curves) the unit used does not matter. The ETM will only use the shape of your profile. For example, if your profile sums up to 500 and the first hour has a value of 5, 1% of the annual demand in the ETM is assigned to the first hour.
Click on the question mark in the curve upload form for specific file instructions about the selected curve.
Interaction with Weather Years
The ETM allows users to select different weather years. This affects all supply and demand profiles that are weather-dependent, such as heat demand and production of wind and solar power. When uploading a custom profile using the CSV upload form, the ETM always prioritizes the uploaded curve over any standard curves used within the ETM. This means that even if you choose a different weather year any uploaded profiles will remain intact while other profiles will change according to that weather year.
Comments on selected profiles
The table below provides some additional information on selected categories.
| Profile | Comment |
|---|---|
| Demand: Buildings | Includes all gas, hydrogen, district heating and electricity use for heating. |
| Demand: Industry heat | Includes all gas, hydrogen and electricity use for heating |
| Demand: Industry electricity | Includes electricity demand, except electricity used for heating (boilers, heat pumps etc.) |
| Demand: Electric cars | You can upload 5 different profiles for electric cars. The ETM uses a mix of these profiles depending on your choices in the Demand response - electric vehicles section. |
| Import/Export: Gases | The ETM uses 'demand' type profiles for both import and export (see above). This means that the units used in your custom profile do not matter. The ETM will extract the shape of your profile and apply that to the annual import/export volume. |
| Import/Export: Interconnectors | See imported electricity |
Results
The chart on the right shows the profiles of all categories that can be modified. If you upload a custom profile, this is reflected in the chart. Note that if a technology is not present in your scenario, the chart series will be empty. By default, the chart shows the daily peak capacity of the profile for the whole year. Select a month or week in the dropdown menu to see the hourly values. You can download the hourly demand and supply curves in your scenario in the Results → Data export section.
